Tuesday, November 3, 2009


Last month I wrote a positive article on why I liked Smart balance. At that time SMBL was selling for $5.90 and I found that figure a reasonable entry point. Two important things have happened since that time. First, the price declined steadily to a low of around $5 and change, making it nearly 20 percent cheaper. Second, today the company announced that it was rolling out its milk products nationwide beginning in January, 2010.

I liked the company at $5.90, so I was very happy to see it go lower. I now own more shares. The milk rollout is exciting. The company says the results of their test market this year in Florida was very favorable. That's good news as milk is a bigger market than spreads. Second, it's good to have feedback that some consumers are still willing to buy premium products in a very difficult economy.

The rollout will eat up some cash, but the company's structure lets them tackle nationwide distribution relatively conservative. Remember, SMBL doesn't own manufacturing or packaging plants. It's all contracted and they announced that they have assembled their dairy partners for the milk venture. The success of the spreads assures shelf space in the milk case.

Nationwide milk distribution and consumer acceptance positions the company well in its quest to become a billion dollar organization. Steve Hughes and his team have the expertise and nads to take on a major, although calculated, expansion in the midst of a difficult economy. They continue to execute their well thought out plan.

I remain encouraged by SMBL's progress and can't wait for 5 years to elapse. Shareholders will be nicely rewarded.


bobby said...

what did you think of the quarter?

William F. Kabourek said...

Bobby, the quarter was ok. I believe SMBL isn't an earnings story yet. It needs to grow sales, marketshare and shelfspace without lossing money. Earnings should follow.

the milk rollout, the bestlife product deal, and hughes buying some shares are all very positive. The shares have responded well lately. hopefully a slow trend higher. remember, i view this as a five year deal so don't expect miracles.

bobby said...

thanks for your comments, I agree with them however it has been a bumpy ride.

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