Monday, October 12, 2009

An Unscientific Examination Of Our Financial Future

Economic and financial education, the financial press, and prayer have failed me. No matter how crusty and savvy I think I am, my results don't equal the image I have of my abilities. While far from prescient, thank God I tend to eke out better results than the professional investment sages. Still, I'm about ready to take up the Maharishi Yogi's Flying Yoga and look for enlightened answers to our investment future.

Where are we headed? Television's talking heads swear it is upward, even though they hedge their verbal bets with a few negatives that could pose problems. Sideline money that needs to be invested, a weak dollar and strong commodities, and momentum are forces that are too strong to stop. The market marches on. Or does it? That's where I wish prayer or Yogi flying would work. Where are we going, because Mama needs new shoes.

Did we overshoot by 50 percent at the nadir? Is cost cutting and an inventory correction worth a 50 percent retracement? Can decent growth in China, Brazil, and India compensate for anemic economic activity in the US and Eurozone? Is deleveraging over or the impact exaggerated? Who knows?

After bouncing up and down on my ass and attempting to fly into meditation, I've come to the following conclusions. We over indulged for too long and we're going to deleverage and suffer for a long time. Our 50% party is overblown and will not last. After a quarter or two of easy comparables fueled by inventory replenishment and cost cutting, we are going to flat line for quite some time. Select companies, in select industries, will do well but the "market" will struggle. Deleveraging is brutal and we haven't experienced brutal yet. Government may slow the process, but they can't stop it, especially since they are attempting to with DEBT!

So, I'm keeping lots of cash and only investing in select stocks that "may" do well despite the upcoming economy. I've kept some emerging markets ETFs and international mutual funds. I've added some short positions and will probably add more, but I scare easily. I'd like clarity, but I can't find any. OM, OM, OM. Off to Fairfield.

No comments:

Add to Technorati Favorites