Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Where are the NCC bulls?

I usually do well in the market when I leave town. It didn’t work that way while I was in LasVegas! National City has come under extreme pressure and now sells for only about $1.40.

I’ve written why I believe the company is undervalued and won’t reiterate my investment thesis. Over the past two days 7 analysts have raised ratings for NCC. All have said NCC is in no danger of failing and not like WM and WB. The company has again stated that it has ample liquidity, capital, and is still growing deposits.

Only several days ago the company converted their newly raised preferrd stock into 1.4B shares of common stock. This stock was raised at the equivalent of $5 in April. The owners are institutions that had a look at the books. They shouldn’t be among recent sellers at under $3. Their were 700M shares outstanding before the new 1.4B. Over 500M have changed hands on Friday and Monday!! Short selling has been banned so it hasn’t been a bear attack. Who is remaining as a seller? We should be near the end of selling pressure other than index funds. I think NCC is set for a rise as their shouldn’t be any sellers left.

If they don’t have a deposit run that isn’t supported by the Fed and FDIC, this stock will go higher. We are in historic times and betting on NCC is getting dicier daily, but I believe we go higher from here as the ownership group should be supporting the stock from here on out.

I hope this is the logic of a crusty credit analyst as opposed to the views of dice roller with a Vegas system.

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