THE KISS OF DEATH

Friday I pitched an old friend, Smart Balance [SMBL], as I believed it had risen too far, too fast. I enjoyed the ride, but the stock had moved from about $5 to $11.50 in a little over two months. It rode on the back of momentum and hope, not earnings or sales growth. Two acquisitions of gluten-free products vaulted the company into the orbit of organic foods and the race was on.

But the basic spreads business has been stagnating and the milk business has not really taken off and depends on heavy couponing. The move into gluten-free is a change of game plan. Additionally, they will be facing higher input costs going forward and they already sell high priced products. So I became nervous and satisfied at the same time which meant sell.

My sell decision often means that a buy order is appropriate for others as stocks continue to rise longer than they should. Also, Steve Hughes will sell SMBL at sometime and I could be really disappointed that I missed the deal, but for now I'm content on the sidelines.


Where did the proceeds go? Some went into PFXF, a new ETF that owns preferred stocks of "non-financial" companies that has a good yield. It really does own financial companies, just not banks, as it has some REITS and insurance companies. Some more went into another old friend that I had divorced a year or so ago, Neutral Tandem, IQNT. It has become obvious, at least to me, that they are setting the stage to be acquired. Several months ago they hired an advisor and recently announced that they will be making a special dividend of about $5 in the Fall and buying back stock. Their returns will look better with a lot of the cash gone and they sound confident that they will have enough cashflow to fund ongoing capex. The earnings shouldn't be under any additional pressure the ROE and cashflow/EV returns will be more attractive. Even though the price will decrease with the dividend, I will at least have some money back and hopefully the company will have found a suitor.

Time to sign off as I'm becoming increasingly interested in a beaver that is sitting in a tree in my backyard. I'm pretty sure it is a beaver but I didn't know they climbed trees and eat leaves. This one is stripping limbs and chomping on leaves and is fat. Since it is hard to type and peer through binoculars, I'm going to stop typing.

TWO SOLID HITS AND A WHIFF

Like most investors, I've spent the last several months vacillating between euphoria and despair. A self proclaimed smart investor descends into stupidity. Over and over again.

Of late, I've been encouraged by the performance of a couple of my holdings. Proof that a value investment approach can work over time. Markets will dive and confidence will sag, but some stocks will go up. I'm not discounting luck as a reason.

My last two posts, Smart Balance [SMBL] and Constellation Brands [STZ] are the holdings that have helped hold my net worth together during the market's flight away from commodities, Europe exposure, and other out of favor sectors. Since the first part of April, SMBL is up more than 70% and STZ has risen  over 45%. Both of these companies have good management and operating performance has been OK, but acquisitions have enlivened analysts and investors.

Mario Gabelli jumped on board Smart Balance and bought 5% of the company. He, and others, liked SMBL's acquisition of two gluten free product companies. The party at STZ didn't start when they owned Robert Modavi and a host of wine and spirit names plus 1/2 of Mexico's Modelo American distribution. But it sure started when they announced the purchase of the other half of Modelo's U.S. distribution. The financing is in place, but the final capital structure of the $1.5 billion deal isn't known. I'm sticking with SMBL longer term and may bail after awhile on STZ.

Now the whiff. I've written about Teva before stating that it is under valued and should produce good returns. When? It continues to act like a dead worm in the swimming pool out back; it just keeps sinking. I'm hopeful it has hit bottom and is resting at its low point. The same mindset that hated SMBL and STZ is at play with TEVA. It's hated for patent expirations, litigation, and who knows what else. Those concerns a overblown. Analysts are calling for $5.40 eps in 2012 and $5.80 in 2013. As a $39 stock the P/E is about 7X. Even as a "slow grower" it's worth more than 7X as the balance sheet is decent.

It's only a matter of time with TEVA and you get a 2% yield while waiting. Something will spark the investing community, maybe an acquisition like the other two companies or some break through drug or blockbuster generic opportunity, but it will happen and the upside is significant. I've been saying that for quite awhile, but I remain a believer.

No Officers Are Selling Smart Balance Shares

I'm either wisely patient or stubbornly stupid when my investment in Smart Balance [SMBL] is subject to critique. This past year has seen a nice move upward in stock price, due to operational improvements and the acquisition of Glutino, the leading gluten-free natural foods brand. But will 2012 be another good year or am I facing a return of dead money?

All of the financial metrics indicate continued progress. Market share and retail shelf space improvement should continue that trend. Healthy eating trends seem to be trumping family budget constraints. Okay, Crusty is convincing himself. How do the officers of Smart Balance feel?

Positive! No one has diversified or unconcentrated their net worth. A number of officers purchased shares over the past two years when the share price dipped to the $3-5 range. Hopefully that means they think there is more upside coming, as no one is selling.

Now everyone go out and eat a slice of Glutino gluten-free bread slathered with Smart Balance spread and wash it down with some Smart Balance milk. I can go on forever and I hope ConAgra, Kelloggs, General Mills, and are thinking about it as well.

Smart Balance Is Behaving Better

Smart Balance's heart healthy regimen hasn't been a financial winner for Al and Crusty. My game-plan has been buy it and tuck it away for 5 years and let Steve Hughes do his magic. Hughes has done it several times before and the bet was that he'd build a billion dollar consumer products lineup and dispose of it profitably. I'm several years into that plan and it hasn't gone smoothly, especially 2010.

After being as low as $3.35 several months ago, its share price has marched up to $5.50. I wish I could justify the rise by significantly improved operational performance, but I can't. The country's milk leader, Dean Foods [DF] has awakened during the same period and enjoyed a similar trajectory. I don't care if SMBL rides DF's coattails as I'm elated that I'm finally in the black again.

The company's recent conference call was positive and their current advertising strategy of combining products in each ad is effective. Milk is doing well, spreads are struggling somewhat, and their Whole Foods venture is promising. They remain upbeat about extending the brand.

Since I've got a couple of years left in my original plan, I'm staying the course. $5.50 makes it easier, as does my new found environmental wacko-ness. Healthy, natural, and organic brands have been able to grow in spite of the economy and I continue to believe that Hughes and his team are on the right track. I hope I prove to be as smart as Al.

How Does The Blogosphere Function Without Me?

It's been about 45 days since I last had something worthwhile to write. While that has left Crusty's readers in the lurch, my in-person buddies have remained subject to the same verbal drivel that they have become accustomed to. But, again, time has flown and I've been busy, busy, busy. Time to write.

Almost all stocks have risen with the market's recent advance. I'm only bleeding on a few short positions and my ownership of Smart Balance. A few covered calls have been taken away and several others are hovering around the strike price, but that's OK.

Crusty is feeling happy as the market and my net worth has rebounded.

But, that feeling of elation is starting to feel a bit tentative. There is quite a consensus regarding QE2, a weaker dollar, and the attraction of commodities and equities during a period of money printing. While I suspect there isn't a ten percent correction coming between now and year end, who really knows? A Democrat victory, a European melt down, or deteriorating numbers from the emerging markets, and a host of other possibilities, could cause serious problems. Celebrate, but remain wary.

Some recent purchases are INSU, the sewer replacement company, SHAW, the engineering nuclear giant, and CLD, a BHP Biliton North American coal spin-off. All have turned in good earnings performances of late, look solid going forward, and have been creamed by the market.

Time to walk the dog. It's finally turned cold in Nebraska and I can't delay any longer as she is staring at me with some extreme urgency. So no more stock talk, out the door I go.

It Never Hurts To Ask The Question

Bunge is up $4 this morning, for all the wrong reasons! It's not their repositioning from fertilizer to sugar and ethanol. It isn't the valuation metrics that are much improved since the share price has come down from the lower 70s. It is due to last evenings announcement of a $700 million stock buyback program. An authorization that may, or may not, be used to its fullest authorized extent. It's a wonder I make any money at all since my thinking is sure different than many on Wall Street.

I've also been questioning myself on my Smart Balance position. I'm currently into the second year of my estimated 5 year holding program on this venture. SMBL doesn't have a fortress balance sheet or a sterling earnings performance, but it is building a great brand and someone, over time, will take it out. Management has done this same gig many times, all successfully. They will again and lots of money will be made. But it was a lot easier staying true to my thesis when the stock was several dollars higher. The market has taken the company steadily lower over the past month and I am now only slightly over my basis. SMBL is a bet on management and mangement is still on the job. I'll continue to wait even though those smarter than me continue selling. I could be wrong, but as Charles Barkley says, "I doubt it."

Natural gas companies have been more in demand lately. Devon, a company like Bunge that has largely liquified its balance sheet and changed it's emphasis from offshore oil to gas, has been doing nicely. The safer side of a Devon investment is some of the pipeline Master Limited Partnerships, guys that get paid for carrying the product. Names like EPD and DEP are down, but still yield 7%. They are a reasonable place, in this low interest rate enviroment, to have some exposure, especially as the country moves to a more natural gas environment.

Time to quit typing, get another cup of coffee, it's too early for scotch, and see what the market is doing to me. Am I smart or stupid?

I'm Rooting For The Oprah Effect

This past week has been an excellent news period for Smart Balance. The price of a share of its stock reflects the improved news flow. What's new? Here are the announcements:

1. A new credit agreement with relaxed covenants. The company stated they still expect to comply with the old covenant thresholds, but they don't have to. they now have added flexibility to grow. Moody's upgrades to stable.

2. The national roll out of their new milk product. After test marketing in Florida and the Northeast this year, SMBL will go nationwide in 2010. The milk business is considerably larger than the spreads market and provides the opportunity to grow sales, market share in the dairy isle, and profits.

3.Today the company announced an agreement with Bob Greene, Oprah's health and fitness guru, to develop and market Bestlife products. These healthy foods and drinks will carry the endorsement of Greene and, implicitly Oprah. Smart Balance will remain the premium products, with Bestlife a more affordable product line.

4. Steve Hughes, SMBL CEO purchased several thousand shares in the open market. A few days earlier a director did likewise.

All this news is nice and may move the stock upward, which makes me feel good, but Smart Balance is a five year play. If you have patience, I think we'll earn multiples of our investment when Hughes sells his then billion dollar company to a major food company for a considerable sum. I'm willing to wait.

SMART BALANCE REVISITED

Last month I wrote a positive article on why I liked Smart balance. At that time SMBL was selling for $5.90 and I found that figure a reasonable entry point. Two important things have happened since that time. First, the price declined steadily to a low of around $5 and change, making it nearly 20 percent cheaper. Second, today the company announced that it was rolling out its milk products nationwide beginning in January, 2010.

I liked the company at $5.90, so I was very happy to see it go lower. I now own more shares. The milk rollout is exciting. The company says the results of their test market this year in Florida was very favorable. That's good news as milk is a bigger market than spreads. Second, it's good to have feedback that some consumers are still willing to buy premium products in a very difficult economy.

The rollout will eat up some cash, but the company's structure lets them tackle nationwide distribution relatively conservative. Remember, SMBL doesn't own manufacturing or packaging plants. It's all contracted and they announced that they have assembled their dairy partners for the milk venture. The success of the spreads assures shelf space in the milk case.

Nationwide milk distribution and consumer acceptance positions the company well in its quest to become a billion dollar organization. Steve Hughes and his team have the expertise and nads to take on a major, although calculated, expansion in the midst of a difficult economy. They continue to execute their well thought out plan.

I remain encouraged by SMBL's progress and can't wait for 5 years to elapse. Shareholders will be nicely rewarded.

TAKE A HEALTHY BITE OF SMART BALANCE

I've owned SMBL on and off over the past several years. The story hasn't changed, but the share price is inching lower. An opportunity is at hand if you can wait five years. Regardless of the "markets" results, Smart Balance will reach $1 Billion, control a significant share of the dairy case, and sell out for a very nice price.

The "story" is one of smart management that has built brands successfully before. Steve Hughes, SMBL CEO, has been the architect of tremendous brand growth at ConAgra, Dean Foods, and Celestial Seasonings. His team has years of experience and the goal of building SMBL into a billion dollar foods concern. They are currently at the $250MM level after several years of business.

Smart Balance is a BRAND. It doesn't own manufacturing or research facilities. It is product, marketing, and people. It makes a little money and generates cash. Enough to paydown it's acquisition debt to $65MM. They should be debt free in a year or so. The lack of manufacturing is an advantage in our current tough times.

At its current share price of $5.90 the stock can be gathered in at a price that is significantly lower than the IPO price, employee options, and the entry points of some of their largest private equity investors. While it isn't at its 2 years low point, it is well off its highs and hasn't participated in the market's run up.

A reasonable plan is to buy some and tuck it away for 5 years. Forget about what the market price is and let Steve Hughes do his magic. Within that timeframe he'll sell the company and you'll end up with a boatload of ConAgra, Kraft, or Heinz shares. That's my bet anyhow.

Specialty Food Producers Have Been Tasty So Far In 2009

January hasn't been kind to the buy and hold investor. Short selling, put buying, call writing, and, maybe, some savvy trading would have goosed performance.

Besides the For Profit Education stocks that I've written about before and believe to be overvalued, there is another small industry subset that has done well. Specialty Food has done nicely so far this year. I'm not talking the likes of Kellogg, ConAgra, or Pepsi, but their smaller, niche brethren.

Flowers Foods, Diamond Foods, and Smart Balance all have staked out corners of the food industry and dominate their niche. FLO reported today and beat by 3 cents and had a promising outlook. DMND had a similar report about a week ago. SMBL hasn't reported earnings yet, but they haven't pre-announced either. I own all three and wish I owned more at my entry basis. Adding to a position in this market is always dangerous since many brilliant ideas turn into falling knives. If I add more it will probably be FLO as they have the most conservative balance sheet.

It will be interesting to see how these companies perform in a bear market rally. they've done well by me since January and I remain hopeful that they will continue to

be tasty.